Philippines Quarterly Gross National Income 2011 onwards

Data Source : 

http://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/default.asp 

http://www.nscb.gov.ph/sna/rev_qrtrly_GNI/1981_2010_NAP_Linked_Series%20(rev_column).xls

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Gross National Income

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How the CSV looks like:

Using R Statistics 

gross_national_income <- read.csv("C:/Users/user/Desktop/gross_national_income.csv", header=F)

z = ts(gross_national_income$V3, start = c(1981, 1), frequency = 4) #frequency 4 quarters
 

#ETS


> plot(forecast(z))
> forecast(z)
 
#ARIMA


> fit <- auto.arima(z)
> fcast <- forecast(fit)
> plot(fcast)
> fcast



Trigonometric Box-Cox ARMA Trend Seasonal (TBATS)


> fit <- tbats(z)
> fcast <- forecast(fit)
> plot(fcast)
> fcast
 
 Prediction VS Actual Results



Blue Highlighted is the Prediction

Pink Highlighted is the Actual from the site

Last Column is the difference.

Values are in Philippines PESOS (i missed by 6193 PHP)
 

2011	Q1	3022107	3015914	6193
2011	Q2	3283005	3225451	57554
2011	Q3	3245533	3094875	150658
2011	Q4	3676553	3541886	134667

 
 
http://nscb.gov.ph/secstat/d_accounts.asp